Agricultural system models provide predictive and assessment capability to a wide range of decision-makers in the private and public sectors. However, despite extensive research to improve agricultural models, many of the models used today are the result of investments made 30-40 years ago, and do not incorporate the major advances in data, information, and communication technology achieved in the past decade. Further, it is increasingly understood that model outputs do not, in and of themselves, constitute decision support systems.
A Next Generation Models Groundwork scoping study, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, has, over the course of a year, convened both internationally renowned and early career experts from around the world to review the current state of agricultural system models and to explore possibilities for advancing developments in models, data, and information technology. A new set of papers titled “Towards a New Generation of Agricultural System Models, Data, and Knowledge Products”, led by the AgMIP Principal Investigators, was recently completed as a result of this study (download the complete set of papers as a pdf).
The set includes an introductory paper and three background papers. The “State of Agricultural Systems Science” contribution by J.W. Jones et al. summarizes the background and current state of agricultural system models, methods, and data that are used for a range of purposes. “Model Design, Improvement and Implementation” by J.M. Antle et al. presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models and data that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. “Building an Open Web-Based Approach to Agricultural Data, System Modeling and Decision Support” by S. Janssen et al. examines how recent developments in information and communications technology can be leveraged to design and implement the next generation of data, models, and decision support tools for agricultural production systems.
A key innovation envisioned for these NextGen models includes linkages to a suite of knowledge products ranging from mobile technology “apps” to personal computer-based dashboards to online analytical and communication tools. Tools that customize information from agricultural models to specific uses and users will enable access by a broader array of stakeholders over a wider range of purposes than is now possible.
New 2-Part Agricultural Model Intercomparision and Improvement Project Handbook Released
By: Shari Lifson
Our food production system, already stressed to meet today’s demands, will face even more challenges in the future to provide for a growing population and adapt to a changing climate. Farmers need to know if their current agricultural systems will continue to produce the yields of today, and what adaptations could be beneficial. Government policy-makers need to understand if food prices and availability will be impacted, and if so by how much and where. International organizations need to identify which regions will be the most vulnerable to the coming changes and thus likely to face food insecurity.
A new two-part volume just published by Imperial College Press, “Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments” edited by Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel, features the work of over 200 scientists using the latest data, models, and technologies to forecast answers to these pressing questions.
Editor Cynthia Rosenzweig with some of the authors as they receive their copies of the book at AgMIP5.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a global community of scientists that quantifies climate change impacts on food security. It has developed standard methods of research combining climate, crop and economic models used by research teams in regions around the globe to simulate the vulnerabilities of and adaptive strategies for their local agricultural systems. These assessments provide information about future crop yields and economic conditions, such as income and poverty rates, which can help agricultural decision-makers plan for the future.
“AgMIP is dedicated to building the capacity of researchers and their institutions to project how climate change will affect agricultural productivity and farmer livelihoods around the world,” stated Cynthia Rosenzweig co-editor. “The Handbook provides new methods of regional integrated assessment that can be used to project climate change impacts in both developed and developing countries.”
Changes in agricultural production are directly linked to variations in temperature and precipitation, and each country, developed or developing, will experience diverse challenges to agricultural production as the climate changes. While developed countries will be impacted by climate change, developing countries are more vulnerable, not only due to their dependence on agricultural production as a large contributor to the gross domestic product, but also because they are projected to experience the greatest impacts from climate change and have high rates of population growth. This two-part Handbook addresses these vulnerabilities in key agricultural production regions through integrated modeling systems and specialized adaptation strategies.
Part One of the Handbook presents an overview of AgMIP, the new methods for the regional integrated assessments, and describes some of AgMIP’s other initiatives including global gridded modeling, simulation of crop pests and diseases, site-based crop-climate sensitivity studies, and scaling. Part Two highlights the results of the AgMIP Regional Research Teams in Sub-Saharan African and South Asia using the new methods.
“The two-part handbook brings in experiences from around the globe but with context and regional specific agricultural pathways aimed at improving resilience and risk reduction in smallholder farming systems in the face of climate change. The integrated approach embraces participation of different stakeholders enabling adoption strategies to be locally developed and have high probability of adoption.” stated Patricia Masikati, lead author of the chapter on crop-livestock intensification in Southern Africa.
In Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia climate changes are projected to lead to reduced incomes and increased poverty in most locations compared to a future in which climate change does not occur. However, although it is likely that climate change will negatively impact most farming systems studied, when economics and adaptation packages where considered future farming systems will be more capable of absorbing yield losses than the farming systems under current practices.
“The book not only summarizes the most recent data and information on future climate effects on agriculture but also provides in-depth synthesis of stakeholder concerns emerging from highly focused discussions by top agricultural scientists, modelers and policy experts at various national and international forums,” commented Job Kihara lead author of the Sub-Saharan Africa overview chapter. “With the momentum being gained on climate smart agriculture generally in Sub-Saharan Africa, this book is timely.”
This impressive new publication benefits a wide range of communities, including agronomists, crop scientists, economists, soil scientists, climatologists, geographers, academics, policy-makers and those on the front lines of farming systems. The reader is exposed to innovative scientific methodology and assessments for the agricultural sector under climate change, leading to improved adaptation in both developed and developing countries.
Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University wrote, “Top agricultural scientists from around the world have taken up the challenge of sustainable agriculture, with the specific focus on integrating agronomic, climatological, biophysical and socio-economic perspectives and processes. Every chapter (of the Handbook) contributes to addressing the growing food-security challenges facing the world.”
A recent paper in Nature of Climate Change, “Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production” Asseng et al., discusses the systematic testing of wheat crop models, utilized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), against field experiments. The testing was conducted because simulations have a large amount of uncertainty in yield projections due to changes in temperature. Results showed that crop models were accurate between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius, but above 22 degrees Celsius, the uncertainty in the model increased. Wheat appears to be less affected by average temperature and more affected by fluctuations in seasonality, illustrating that the timing of warmer and cooler weather in the growing season has a large impact on grain yield.
Warmer temperatures earlier in the season result in quicker plant maturity and decreasing yields. According to Asseng et al., uncertainty in the models increases with increasing temperature, though many models are accurate in predicting yield declines with higher temperature. Some uncertainty in the models could be caused by lack of data regarding input information. Using an individual model to produce projections also resulted in larger uncertainty than using several models. Using a multi-model average can produce projections with less uncertainty, as a lack of input information on one model has little impact on a multi-model average.
Increasing temperatures are associated with changes in water stress, as higher temperatures cause more water to be lost. By irrigating crops and providing fertilizer, stress on the crop is much reduced and yield can be improved. However, if the crop is exposed to warmer temperatures late in the season, grain yield will be less. Models often project this occurrence accurately which may minimize the impact of other errors in the model. The models project decreases in yield between 1% and 28% for a 2 degree increase in temperature and 6% to 55% for a 4 degree increase in temperature. These projections vary by location, with the largest decreases occurring in low latitudes where the base temperature is already approaching critical temperature for wheat crops. Year to year variability in the models is high, as warmer years have lower yields than cooler years.
Overall the models project decreasing yields with increasing temperature, mostly due to a shorter growing season. In locations where crop growth is limited by water and nitrogen, the models project that temperature increases can result in increased yield due to decreased stress at the end of the growing season; however, other experiments suggest decreased yields irrespective of water supply. The experiments suggest that simulated projections are applicable to most systems that are not irrigated and do not receive high rainfall. By extrapolating the model globally, it is projected that every one degree increase in temperature will result in an average 6% decrease in global wheat production.
For the complete paper click here to access the Nature of Climate Change webpage.
Small-scale farm systems have become increasingly susceptible to climate change impacts in the recent decades. The people in Navrongo, a town located in the Upper East region of Ghana, have especially experienced difficulties. “There is a real problem with rainfall,” one local farmer noted, “when we were young, we planted millet in April. Gradually, we started planting in May, June, and now, in July.” This changing rainfall pattern has made it more difficult for farmers. The seasons are shorter and yields are not what they once were. The changing climate projects an even bleaker future.
Navrongo is a predominantly small-scale farming community. The major crops grown are millet, sorghum, and peanuts. Some farmers have dual crop/livestock systems, and keep cattle, sheep, goats and poultry. Many farms rely on organic practices to insure production. The majority of farmers are dependent on livestock manure for fertilizer, and crop residue as a main source for livestock feed.
The Western Africa AgMIP regional team, led by Dr Dilys MacCarthy and Dr. Samuel K. Adiku, has identified Navrongo as a target area for study during the AgMIP project. Over the last several months, three workshops have been held in this region. Two workshops in September, and one workshop in November, were held to develop Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) in the Navrongo region. These workshops included a total of 51 participants from a variety of fields including: research, NGOs, policymaking, agricultural extension, and national climate change platform members.
Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) utilize climate and socio-economic information to construct agricultural models to determine regional vulnerabilities to both climate and economic variation. The uniqueness to RAP design is the trans-disciplinary process that brings together the various elements of the research team. This trans-disciplinary approach is especially beneficial to stakeholders, as it provides AgMIP teams the opportunity to capture plausible farm-level improvements that are often static when modeled in climate scenarios. RAP designs encompass tradeoffs between bio-physical drivers and socio-economic drivers. Western Africa will develop RAPs 4 and 5 during phase II of the AgMIP project.
“There is a problem with the weather,” one farmer acknowledged during one of the workshops, “The rain falls continuously for two or three days and then there will be no rainfall for another week or two.” Understanding how climate may change in the coming years is essential for long term planning.
The RAPs created will help reduce uncertainty towards modeling in the Navrongo region. The Navrongo region focused their workshops on two opposite scenarios: RAP 4 and RAP 5. RAP 4 is recognized as sustainable low growth, synonymous with strong environmental protection but low economic growth. RAP 5 is recognized as unsustainable high growth, synonymous with productive economic growth continuing at the expense of natural resource exploitation.
During the workshops, the Western Africa team, in collaboration with stakeholders, identified several indicators that would be impacted in each RAP design. The stakeholders then identified each indicators resultant impact. Many indicators were targeted, but some were of particular note. For the more environmentally sustainable projection (RAP 4), significant findings include: moderate increases in water-availability, labor availability, and labor demand, as well as a small decrease in pests, diseases, and extreme events. The unsustainable projections (RAP 5) include suggestions of a large increase in soil degradation, a moderate increase in fertilizer use and pests and diseases, and a small decrease in labor demand.
Outcomes from the development workshops will continue to advance Phase II of the AgMIP project. Crop modelers will be incorporating the developed RAPs into their work and look forward to sharing outputs with collaborators. The research team will continue to engage with stakeholders through follow up visits and consultations to continue to provide insight and receive input. Furthermore, the West Africa team is looking forward to the Dakar Workshop, where engagement with other regional teams will further advance the collective work of AgMIP.
AgMIP Co-PI John Antle presenting to teams at the Sub-Saharan Africa Mid-Term Workshop in Pretoria, South Africa
With a global population on track to exceed 9 billion by the middle of the century and climate change altering growing conditions across the planet, the need to figure out if agricultural production will keep pace is becoming more urgent, leading agricultural economists say.
In a panel discussion held yesterday by the nonprofit organization Resources for the Future, representatives from the World Bank, the Department of Agriculture and academia said government agencies are collaborating with researchers and local officials to predict the economic risks that climate change poses to farming households around the world.
Finding a way to quantify those economic risks is a complex challenge because of the amount of information that has to go into modeling future crop yields, said Elizabeth Marshall, an economist for USDA’s Economic Research Service.
“We need to downscale data from global models and make it relevant [to farmers], which is very difficult,” she said.
USDA has been working with Agricultural Model Intercomparison Improvement Project, or AgMIP, an international endeavor of more than 600 researchers that integrates crop yield research and information technology with climate change and economic modeling. The nearly five-year project is meant to provide more accurate predictions of vulnerability to climate change and also help producers adapt to changing growing conditions.
The systems-based approach addresses the effects of climate change on a regional to global scale and already has eight projects in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia combined. Researchers develop their crop yield predictions using both current climate data and climate modeling. The predictions are then combined with crop yield models, which in turn are evaluated within economic models to determine the potential impact on prices and trade.
One of the strengths of AgMIP is that it doesn’t just look at the average change crop yields or prices, but also assesses the degree of vulnerability that the specific region or household is likely to experience, said John Antle, the initiative’s co-principal investigator and a professor in the Department of Applied Economics at Oregon State University.
More studies, better predictions
As an example, he pointed to anticipated average increases in winter wheat yields in states in the Pacific Northwest as a result of climate change.
“Even though the net impact is positive, that doesn’t mean everyone is happy,” he said.
Across the planet, predictions of potential losses are highly variable. A joint global economic modeling study by USDA and AgMIP researchers predicted that by the middle of the century, average agricultural productivity will decline by 17 percent, with maximum declines exceeding 40 percent. By the same period, average yields could go down by 11 percent; in some places, production could increase slightly; and elsewhere, decreases in yields could reach nearly 40 percent.
Commodity prices were especially unpredictable; average prices were forecast to go up by 20 percent, but prices could go up by as much as 60 percent, according to the study, published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In order to reduce some of the uncertainty associated with predicting the effects of climate change on agriculture, AgMIP researchers also use intercomparisons of multiple different crop models, said James Jones, who works on the biophysical component of AgMIP and is also the director of the Florida Climate Institute.
“We know our models aren’t perfect, so we don’t just rely on one model,” said Jones. In order to make predictions about wheat yields in a previous study, researchers incorporated data from about 27 studies from around the world.
“We’ve shown in our research that when we compare the results, the median of the results of all the studies is better than any one study’s predictions. So that gives us more confidence that our estimates are the best we can do with current knowledge,” he said.
No ‘crystal ball’
Currently, USDA is working with AgMIP both on the intercomparison of crop simulation models and on another project that is evaluating crop models’ ability to estimate crop water use, according to Jerry Hatfield, laboratory director and supervisory plant physiologist at USDA’s Agricultural Research Service.
AgMIP researchers also try to keep their predictions as grounded in facts as possible by comparing predictions to actual yields in a particular region — they ask stakeholders about what they believe the future agricultural practices may be in order to help shape their predictions.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much the climate will change and the time period it will occur,” said Jones. “We don’t have a crystal ball; what we do have is a lot of knowledgeable people.”
Now the challenge is presenting the information in a meaningful way to farmers, according to Antle.
“Stakeholders want us to answer the question, ‘What do we do?’” said Antle. “Clearly, we need to translate these impacts on income into meaningful outcomes.”
Such efforts are already happening in countries like Uruguay, according to Holger Kray, lead agricultural economist for the World Bank’s Agriculture Global Practice.
The country is among the world’s top 10 exporters of agricultural products such as wool, beef and dairy, despite having a population of just 3 million.
Because agricultural products account for 70 percent of Uruguay’s total exports, the country’s gross domestic product is heavily affected by environmental changes like drought or extreme weather events. In order to protect its economy, the government requires that every farmer have a three-year soil management plan to conserve resources. Nearly two dozen government agencies have pooled their climate change-related data into a single information resource to make it easier for researchers, policymakers and farmers to track the latest research and develop more effective plans, said Kray.
Such a coordinated approach could serve as an example for how other nations could implement their own adaptive measures, even as researchers such as Antle work on finding more definitive measures of the future global food supply.
“Assessing food security isn’t really possible yet, but this [research] is a step toward that,” he said.
Copyright 2015 E&E Publishing, LLC. This article was reprinted from ClimateWire with permission of E&E Publishing
A new Canola Initiative has just been launched on the AgMIP website. Canola (rapeseed) has become a major crop for production of edible oil around the world, and plays an essential role for international food security.
The objectives of the group are:
Identify current canola growth models or crop models that are used to simulate canola
Develop protocols and identify reference data sets for evaluation and inter-comparison of canola models
Identify knowledge gaps and recommend improvements in modelling development, growth, grain yield and grain quality of canola crops
Produce multi-model assessment of yield potential of canola crops in major production regions of the world
Conduct multi-model assessment of the impacts of climate change on canola production
This video is produced for the Biosphere Defense Project, hosted by the International Institute of Climate Action and Theory (IICAT) at the University of California. It features footage of interviews with researchers from the CLIP (Crop Livestock Intensification Project) team of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (agmip.org). The video explores issues related to climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and livestock farming in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique and the imperatives for change; highlighting opportunities to reduce risk and increase resilience in Southern Africa.
The video features footage of smallholder farms in the Matobo Communal Lands of Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe, and interviews with the following scientists:
Patricia Masikati, PI, crop modeler, Principal Investigator (PI) AgMIP, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, Co PI, social scientist, ICRISAT, Zimbabwe
Katrien Descheemaeker, AgMIP Resource Person (ARP), livestock modeler, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Arthur C. Gama, regional economist, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources,Lilongwe, Malawi
Jairos Ruinda, Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Engeneering, University of Zimbabwe
Two recent stakeholder meetings in Pretoria, and Malawi were held by AgMIP Southern Africa teams to engage local stakeholders and inform them about research being conducted in Southern Africa. Local stakeholders, such as decision- and policy-makers, are the end-users of AgMIP research outputs as they seek to form effective agricultural policies based on scientific knowledge of possible future impacts of climate change on local economies.
Stakeholders can also play a vital role in directing the goals and strategies of AgMIP’s regional research teams to better provide useful information. Stakeholders understand local policy and monetary feasibility of possible agricultural adaptations to climate change, and can thus increase the realism of research scenarios and advise research teams as to relevant avenues of research to meet regional needs. Input from stakeholders allows AgMIP to directly test policies and adaptation strategies under consideration, and interaction between the stakeholder and research communities helps identify new options for further consideration.
“The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) multi-modeling approach is novel as it analyses impacts on the future of entire farming systems, including crops and livestock as well as possible socio-economic scenarios,” explained Dr. Aloysius, Director of Environmental Affairs in the Ministry of Environment, Energy and Mining, Malawi. “-The project will benefit planned government activities, especially the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to climate change.”
In Pretoria, South Africa, the AgMIP Southern Africa Regional Research Team and the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) met with approximately 60 researchers and stakeholders on September 9th, 2014, to share scientific information and identify key challenges for farmers who are attempting to adapt to climate change. In addition, stakeholders provided feedback on the analysis of climate change impacts, as well as alternatives, opportunities and solutions for adapting to climate change. Researchers and stakeholders met with the goal of partnering to create field-level adaptations and identify preferred solutions.
Stakeholders also collaborated with AgMIP researchers in Malawi on September 11th, 2014, at a meeting organized by AgMIP and the Crop-Livestock Intensification Project under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the importance of integrating crop-livestock and fodder production models to reduce the impacts of climate change. Policy tends to focus on crop models only, but livestock is a vital part of the livelihood of many farmers and is important to consider within the scope of climate change. Participants included high level decision makers interested in future scenarios of economic development and possible options for climate change adaption for smallholder farming system in the region.
“The AGMIP work was very well received, and we received great interest for future collaboration [such as] feedback of results into the institutional set up [and] more work through students,” stated Sabine Homann-Kee Tui, a scientist on the Southern Africa Livestock Team.
AgMIP is currently expanding its stakeholder outreach with new protocols and a Stakeholder Unit that will include a member on each of the regional research teams. Stakeholder involvement in AgMIP research, and communication with local decision makers, can translate AgMIP research into policy that will benefit future regional food security.
AgMIP, in a recent collaboration with the Geospatial Building Blocks project (GABBs), is developing a geospatial mapping tool to project future climate change scenarios and impacts. The GABBs project will create a web-based system that shares geospatial data that can be used via tools such as AgMIP’s that present the data in a way that projects global issues and concerns.
AgMIP will work with GABBS to model the effect of climate change on historical and future crop yields. The data available via GABBs is freely available but difficult to use. The AgMIP tool processes the data for individuals so that the data is easy to use and can be integrated into many regions and models. The ultimate goal of the project is to create a web-based system that will allow individuals to freely access and easily use geospatial data for the purpose of climate change assessment.
The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CCSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) will host more than 4,000 scientists, professionals, educators, and students at the 2014 International Annual Meetings, “Grand Challenges – Great Solutions,” November 2-5, 2014, in Long Beach, CA. The events will take place primarily at the Long Beach Convention Center and the Hyatt Regency Long Beach Hotel.
There will be an AgMIP Poster Session on Wednesday, November 5, 2014 from 2:30-4:30 pm at the Long Beach Convention Center, in Exhibit Hall ABC.
The session will include posters from AgMIP collaborators and other contributors exploring a wide range of subjects. Topics such as the regional assessments of climate change on farming systems undertaken by AgMIP teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, multi-model crop assessments, uncertainty, and the use of satellite imagery for surveying and crop modeling will be presented. Click here to see the complete list of posters that will be included.
AgMIP collaborators will also be participating in the following events during the ASA International Annual Meeting:
Symposium – Evapotranspiration in Crop and Hydrologic Models: Testing, Refinements and Cross-Comparisons: I
This event will take place Monday, November 3, 2013 from 1:00-4:00 pm at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach, Beacon Ballroom A.
This session will discuss the large variation in prediction of evapotranspiration that occurs in crop and hydrological models. The symposium will focus on papers that may support the improvement in crop and hydrological models. Please see the event link below for more information on the speakers.
Global Agronomy:I
This event will take place Sunday, November 2, 2014 from 2:00-5:30 pm at the Long Beach Convention Center, Room 203A.
Please see the event link below for the list of speakers.
Climatology & Modeling:I
This event will take place Tuesday, November 4, 2014 from 7:55 am -12:00 pm at the Long Beach Convention Center, Room 203B.
Please see the event link below for the list of speakers.
AgMIP will also be hosting the following meetings before or during the ASA International Annual Meeting:
AgMIP Meeting I (Strategic Planning) – This meeting will be for AgMIP Principal Investigators and AgMIP Leadership.
Saturday, November 1, 2014 from 9:00 am – 5:00 pm at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach, Pacific.
AgMIP Meeting II (Crop-Water-ET) – This meeting will be for crop and water modelers.
Sunday, November 2, 2014 from 9:00 am – 12:00 pm at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach, Pacific.
AgMIP Meeting III (Crop-Water-ET) – This meeting will be for crop and water modelers.
Sunday, November 2, 2014 from 1:00 – 5:00 pm at the Hyatt Regency Long Beach, Regency Ballroom ABC.
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Stakeholders also collaborated with AgMIP researchers in Malawi on September 11th, 2014, at a meeting organized by AgMIP and the Crop-Livestock Intensification Project under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security 
The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CCSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) will host more than 4,000 scientists, professionals, educators, and students at the 2014 International Annual Meetings, “Grand Challenges – Great Solutions,” November 2-5, 2014, in Long Beach, CA. The events will take place primarily at the Long Beach Convention Center and the Hyatt Regency Long Beach Hotel.