Global Economics Modeling
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe,
Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, USA
Hans van Meijl,
Wageningen University, the Netherlands
The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies/Joint Research Centre, Spain
International Food Policy Research Institute, USA
Martin von Lampe,
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France
The full list of participating modelling teams can be found in the papers listed below.
Over the period 2011-2013 the global economics (GlobEcon) team in AgMIP conducted an extensive model intercomparison. The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The first phase of the AgMIP global economic research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). As a main result, a PNAS paper and a special issue in the journal Agricultural Economics have been produced, containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The special issue includes seven peer-reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using global gridded crop models (AgGRID) and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) developed as part of the AR5 process. The PNAS paper and the special issue provide broad insights into how the modeling groups approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, and bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.
In 2015, members of the global economics team extended the earlier analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios, results of which were recently published in Environmental Research Letters.
Wiebe, K, H Lotze-Campen, R Sands, A Tabeau, D van der Mensbrugghe, A Biewald, B Bodirsky, S Islam, A Kavallari, D Mason-D’Croz, C Müller, A Popp, R Robertson, S Robinson, H van Meijl and D Willenbockel (2015), “Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios”, Environ. Res. Lett. 10(2015) 085010, http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/8/085010
Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlik, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d’Croz, D., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., Willenbockel, D. (2014): Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. PNAS, 111, 9, 3274-3279.
Weblink to original article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222465110
Open access (including supporting information and data): http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3948295/?report=classic
Content of the Special Issue, Agricultural Economics, 45(1), 2014:
Nelson, G.C. and Shively, G.E. (2014): Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
von Lampe, M. et al. (2014): Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Nelson, G.C. et al. (2014): Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree? Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Müller, C. and Robertson, R. (2014): Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Robinson, S. et al. (2014): Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Valin, H. et al. (2014): The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Schmitz, C. et al. (2014): Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article
Lotze-Campen, H. et al. (2014): Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison. Agricultural Economics, 45(1). Weblink to article