Session 1.1 Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Extremes
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Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title: Developing adaptation packages for West African agriculture while ensuring congruence with climate and RAPs.
Authors: Ibrahima Hathie1, D.S.
MacCarthy2, S. B. Freduah2, A. Nenkam, M. Adams, G. K.
Adiku2, P.C.S. Traore3, J. Clottey2, A. Ly1,
and S. Narh2
1 Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale, Senegal; 2
University of Ghana, College of Agriculture and Consumer Science, Ghana; 3
International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, Mali
Abstract: In the semi-arid region of the Sahel,
climate change is already affecting the farming systems and these impacts are
expected to heighten in the near to mid-century. Given the complexities and
conflicting drivers at play and the foreseeable negative consequences on the
livelihoods of the majority of farmers, it is worthwhile designing relevant
adaptation packages that will alleviate these effects. In this study, we
envision to assess the implications of implementing two adaptation packages
within the context of three West African farming systems specifically located
in Ghana (Navrongo), Mali (Koutiala) and Senegal (Nioro). The first adaptation
package is composed of heat and drought tolerant species along with an economic
and policy level intervention through the delivery of subsidies to acquire
improved varieties. The second pack builds on the first but adds a fertilizer
component (splitting and timing to account for extreme events) and a policy
variable in the form of index-based insurance adoption. The design process
included interactions with a diverse set of stakeholders. The outcomes of these
adaptation options on current and future agricultural systems will shed light
on the projected adoption rates of climate adapted-systems and show how these
various adaptations affect the impacts of climate change, keeping congruence
with the relevant representative agricultural pathways.
Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title : Designing and Assessing Adaptation
Strategies to Face Challenges of Climate Change: Insights from Indo-Gangetic
Plains of India
Authors: Harbir Singh1, N. Subash1,
G. Paudel2, B. Singh3, R. Valdivia4, and G.
Baigorria5
1 ICAR-IIFSR, 2 TNAU, India, 3 CIMMYT, 4
Oregon State University, USA, 5 University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
Abstract: The adverse impacts of climate change are clearly discernable particularly in South Asia with greater variability of monsoon and an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and intense heat waves. The Indo-Gangetic basin (IGB), which is characterized by smallholder agriculture, is highly vulnerable to climate change. This region is considered the rice-wheat bowl of the country, In addition to food requirements, more than half of the rural population is dependent on agriculture for earning its livelihood. With the growing challenges to provide food security for rising populations, it is pertinent to identify and test suitable adaptation strategies not only for the existing production systems but also for the future farming systems. The Agricultural Model Improvement and Intercomparison Project (AgMIP) has developed protocols which help in designing and testing adaptation strategies to deal with climate change. Primarily this study is aimed at designing adaptation strategies across four locations in the IGB. Two locations in North-West India (Meerut and Karnal) have highly intensive farming system which is showing signs of stagnation with overexploitation of natural resources. The other two locations in the North-East India (Faizabad and Samastipur) have under-utilized productivity potential. The adaptation strategies for these two distinct production environments are expected to be different considering their specific production environments and socioeconomic settings. This presentation will share experiences of designing adaptation strategies for two locations in North-West India (Meerut and Karnal) and demonstrate their use in dealing with adverse impacts of climate change.
Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title : Exploring adaptations to variable and changing climates
for smallholder mixed crop livestock systems in semi-arid Zimbabwe
Authors : Sabine Homann-Kee Tui1, P.
Masikati2, K. Descheemaeker3, G. Sisito4, B.
Francis5, T. Senda4, O. Crespo6, H. Mlilo1,
D. Nyoni7, and E. Moyo8
1 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics
(ICRISAT), Zimbabwe, 2 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Zambia, 3
Plant production systems, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 4
Matopos Research Institute, Zimbabwe, 5 Institute of Development
Studies, Zimbabwe, 6 University of Capetown, South
Africa, 7 Department of Agricultural Technical and Extension
Services, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development, 8 Climate Change
Management Department
Abstract: Smallholder farmers in semi-arid Zimbabwe are on a challenging
journey, levels of vulnerability are high. Interplay variable and changing
climate, inherently poor soils, weak input and knowledge support systems and
non-functional markets impact productivity and food security, and keep these
systems at a stuck state of poverty. Co-designing desirable futures with
farmers and other stakeholders is a powerful way to illustrate possible
pathways and gains from adaptations. Here we share the process of developing
adaptation options for Nkayi district in semi-arid Zimbabwe: 1. Systems
conceptualization: Participatory visioning at community scale informed current
and desired systems states, and adaptation options designed for different farm
types, grounded in context and identity. Representative Agricultural Pathways
(RAPS) were assessed at provincial scale illustrating possible future trends.
2. Adaptation to current climate: The effects of currently promoted practices
and technologies, crop livestock intensification using low risk soil fertility
management combined with livestock feeding, proved insufficient for improving
smallholder livelihoods. Hence more transformative adaptation options were
tested, with greater diversification into food, feed and cash legumes. 3.
Adaptation to future climate: Switching to drought tolerant varieties was
tested for different farming futures, towards sustainable intensification
versus economic growth and resource extraction. 4. Stakeholder feedback:
Modeling outputs on technology impacts fed the discussion among researchers and
stakeholders on how adaptations can become realistic for current conditions and
adjusted for future climate and socio-economic conditions. This can inform
options for reducing risk and vulnerability, windows of opportunities, policy
and institutional implications.
Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title: Integrated assessments in Irrigated
Agriculture linking Crop and Hydrological Models : The case of Central Chile
Authors: Francisco J. Meza, L. Henriquez, D.
Poblete, and S. Vicuña
Centro de Cambio Global. Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
Abstract: As a consequence of population growth,
increasing competition for water resources and changes in temperature,
precipitation, and runoff, irrigated agriculture will be one of the most
affected sectors, particularly in Mediterranean regions.
In these regions, agriculture develops a two way
interaction with surface water resources because the nature of irrigation
systems (i.e. rate of withdrawals and efficiency of use) determines the real
demand and availability for agricultural systems downstream.
The search for feasible adaptation strategies
requires the use of integrated models that combine the scenarios of land use
and climate change, hydrological responses at the basin level, and an
evaluation of crop water use and yields, particularly under restricted
conditions.
In this work we present a case study for one of
the most important basins of central Chile (the Maipo Basin). We use the Water
Evaluation and Planning model (WEAP) coupled with a Crop Simulation model to
assess the potential impacts of climate change for irrigated agriculture (the
most important consumer of surface water resources in the basin).
A set of adaptation strategies, that involve
basin regulation, a market of water use rights, changes in irrigation systems
are evaluated using water security metrics.
Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title : Developing and Assessing Adaptation Strategies against
climate vulnerability in cotton wheat cropping system of Punjab, Pakistan
Authors : Muhammad Ashfaq1, J. Nasir1,
I.A. Baiq2, and I. A. Chattha1
1 Uni. of Agriculture-Faisalabad, Pakistan, 2 PMAS-Arid
Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Abstract : This is a part of session on “Designing and Assessing
Adaptation Strategies”.
Agricultural production systems are complex, interlinked and dependent on
various factors. Crop production is climate prone sector of the economy. Anticipation
and adaptations to climate change is important tool. There are certain planned
and unplanned adaptations regarding climate vulnerability in agricultural
systems that maintain the balance in ecosystem and minimize the economic
losses. To minimize the climate losses there can be adaptation strategies on
farm/regional and national level. To access the benefits of adaptations
AgMIP-Pakistan formulated the adaptation packages through continuous engagement
process with researchers, farmers and policy makers to combat the current and
future climatic vulnerabilities.
Various sessions were organized for the expert
opinion regarding designing adaptation strategies and assessing their
socio-economic impacts. Second meeting was held with progressive farmers at
field for practical field issues and adaptation measures. Wide range of
adaptation strategies were shared by team members and got the feedback from
stakeholders on every aspect. For current and future climatic vulnerabilities
different short term and long term adaptation strategies were compiled in which
biophysical, socioeconomic and policy parameters were assessed. Important
adaptation parameters for future were genetic improvements, draught resistant
and heat tolerant varieties, deep tillage, soil and water conservation
practices, construction of water storage, efficient irrigation systems, crop
diversification, agricultural insurance and farm mechanization. For current
adaptations, increase in plant population, fertigation, efficient irrigation
and import of improved gene cultivar were important ones. The adaptation
package was shared with crop modelers for their input. The great challenge was
to incorporate those parameters which could be used in the modelling.
Session 1.3: Oral Presentation
Title : Incremental crop management adaptations to climate
change: an integrated assessment for European agriculture
Authors: Heidi Webber1, A. Zimmermann1,
G. Zhao2, W. de Vries3, J. Kros3, J. Wolf4,
and F. Ewert1
1 University of Bonn, Germany,2 Bayer Crop Science,
3 Alterra, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 4
Wageningen University, The Netherlands
Abstract: Farmers are expected to make incremental adaptations in crop
management, such as adapting sowing dates and changing varieties in response to
gradually warming temperatures. This study aims to quantify the importance of
such adaptations for European agriculture, considering crop yields, prices,
production level, land use and nitrogen losses to the environment. An
integrated modelling framework was used, consisting of the crop model
SIMPLACE<Lintul-5, DRUNIR, Heat>, the economic agricultural sector model
CAPRI and the environmental model INTEGRATOR. The study considered agricultural
changes in the EU-27 under three SRES scenarios for 2050. SIMPLACE simulated water-limited
growth of seven crops in response to climate and CO2 concentration
to determine relative yield changes for no adaptation, optimal adaptation and a
non-optimal “actual” adaptation scenario. To simulate changes in European
agricultural markets (land use, supply, demand, and prices) with CAPRI,
historical yield trends were extrapolated for each scenario to give relative
yield changes due to climate, adaptation and technology progress for each of
the three adaptation cases together with scenario specific changes in global
gross domestic product, population, and agricultural trade policies. The
results of changed land use and yield drive agricultural emissions calculated
by INTEGRATOR. Results indicate that the method of specifying adaptations had a
very large influence on projected yields under climate change, though
assumptions about technology progress appear to have a larger influence for all
indicator variables. Challenges in specifying crop management in integrated
assessments are highlighted and ways to address these are discussed.
10. Poster Presentation: Session 1.3
Title: Exploring the adaptation scope –
optimization-based decision-support for transformative adaptation planning
Author: Annelie Holzkämper1
1 Agroscope, Institute for Sustainability
Sciences, Switzerland
Abstract: Climate change implies changes in
agricultural plant production conditions, which can be either negative or
positive. To maintain or even increase productivity – making use of emerging
potentials – management adaptations are inevitable. Contrary to short-term
incremental adaptation, which is often implemented by local farmers
autonomously, long-term transformative adaptation planning requires greater
anticipation. In that respect, predictive impact models are valuable tools to
estimate changes in climatic limitations to crop growth. The identification of
adequate responses to such impacts can be a challenging task given that
particular adaptation choices can affect various other agroecosystem services
besides production (e.g. soil retention, water provision). Integrated
assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation options are essential for
anticipating long-term effects on various agroecosystem services and thus for
reducing the risk of maladaptation.
This contribution demonstrates the potentials of
multi-objective optimization for decision-support in transformative adaptation
planning. Case study results are presented, showing Pareto-optimal adaptation
strategies with regard to different adaptation goals (i.e. maximum
productivity, minimum erosion, minimum leaching) and evaluating their
robustness to potential sources of uncertainty. Model results allow for a
quantification of maladaptation risks, thus helping to direct precautionary
management efforts.