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Since 2010, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) community of agricultural experts has been advancing methods for improving predictions on the future performance of agricultural and food systems. AgMIP has advanced widely used tools and protocols for harmonized analyses of agricultural systems using the best available models. It has also advanced new methods to integrate stakeholder-informed scenarios into global and regional assessments of current and future agriculture and food systems outlooks given changing climate and other stresses. Stakeholders and Researchers regularly use AgMIP tools, methods, and agricultural projections to advance their work.
The name AgMIP emphasizes the importance of intercomparison for learning about models and for improving their components. Initial studies on wheat, corn, and rice systems have resulted in multiple-author, high-impact papers. This work is now motivating research linking agriculture and land use, nutrition, shocks, and many other related topics, with active participation of about 1,000 agricultural modelers and stakeholders worldwide. The accelerated understanding of agriculture and food systems through shared data and model approaches is providing cutting-edge, scaled-up solutions to food system challenges never before possible.
The AgMIP8 2020 and 2021 events will showcase collaborative advances across Workshop Themes: Food Systems (Nutrition, Diets, and Food Security), Shocks (Resilience to Shocks and Stresses), and Actions (From Assessment to Action).
Food Systems are vulnerable to weather shocks and climate change. AgMIP methods support activities that build regional capacity for integrated food system assessments inclusive of nutrition. They also provide a testbed for rapidly scaled-up research on food, nutrition, and health resilience strategies in the face of climate change. Decision contexts can increasingly drive research that explores linked nutrition, crops, livestock, and economics aspects to transform food and nutrition delivery. AgMIP researchers in region can work with stakeholders to co-generate the science-based evidence to help deliver positive nutrition and health outcomes.
Shocks can hugely undermine societal stability leading to civil unrest and migration. Understanding and anticipating stressors, tipping points, and interventions will make society more resilient to future food system shocks. AgMIP scientists are analyzing recent changes in the global food system such as changing trade networks, food stocks, diseases, and diets; shifting probabilities of extreme climate events and how they could affect multiple breadbasket regions; and, behaviors of governments, supply chains, private companies and other food system actors. AgMIP is developing real-time monitoring, probabilistic scenarios, and near-term forecasting of climate shocks to scale up integrated, multi-disciplinary, and action-oriented research in service to society.
Action is made possible owing to collaborative innovation among a community of climate, agriculture, health, trade, security and foreign aid experts creating methods to enable adaptive transformation of the food system. New tools translate and harmonize operations, linking research and decision frameworks to address food security and other societal needs in a world that is increasingly characterized by large and, at times, tumultuous changes. A food system that was already straining to deliver affordable and nutritious food to world populations is profoundly impacted by Covid-19 dynamics and responses. Shifting baselines are altering risk profiles in ways yet to be fully understood, elevating the potential for shocks from climate and other factors, with acute, wide-ranging, and cascading impacts. The AgMIP community is advancing approaches to understand, project, and address these challenges.